{"F": {"ts_code": "920018.BJ", "name": "宏远股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.61, "pe_ttm": 22.0201, "pb": 2.6764, "dv_ttm": 0.9856, "total_mv": 258389.8839, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 8.4, 7.2, 8.5, 8.0, 7.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 13.1, 14.6, 20.7, 27.0], "np_series": [null, null, 0.5, 0.6, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [11.5, 15.9, 14.2, 15.7, 20.6, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -5.0, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.3, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.68, "capex_dep": 3.33, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 19.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 27.3, "np_cagr3": 28.6, "rev_yoy": 40.2, "np_yoy": 23.0, "np_vol": 27.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["换位导线", 39.0], ["纸包线", 9.0], ["漆包线", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 42, "hard": 12, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.0 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 3.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "宏远股份:PE 比行业中位低 21.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}