{"F": {"ts_code": "920016.BJ", "name": "中草香料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.48, "pe_ttm": 49.2247, "pb": 2.839, "dv_ttm": 0.4834, "total_mv": 111469.8332, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.4, 32.4, 33.9, 33.3, 30.5, 26.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 1.9, 2.1, 2.2, 2.4], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [33.6, 37.3, 29.1, 20.3, 12.4, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 32.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 6.5, "npm_median": 16.5, "roe_median": 20.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.9, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.84, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 16.3, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -20.2, "rev_yoy": 38.2, "np_yoy": 37.3, "np_vol": 42.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 43.9, "fwd_pe2": 34.9, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["凉味剂", 67.0], ["合成香料", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0], ["其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": -14.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 60, "hard": 85, "bondness": 38}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 53%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.9%,股息率 0.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 53%)和定价权(毛利率 32.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "中草香料:PE 比行业中位高 13.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.4个百分点。"]}}