{"F": {"ts_code": "920015.BJ", "name": "锦华新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.31, "pe_ttm": 35.8789, "pb": 3.0825, "dv_ttm": 1.1224, "total_mv": 519355.9013, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 34.1, 17.7, 27.7, 27.9, 30.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.9, 11.1, 12.4, 10.3], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 1.7, 2.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [26.9, 68.6, 16.6, 30.0, 27.9, 15.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 17.0, "roe_median": 27.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.08, "capex_dep": 4.33, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 23.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.3, "np_cagr3": 34.7, "rev_yoy": -28.0, "np_yoy": -43.8, "np_vol": 126.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 30.8, "fwd_pe2": 18.2, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 69.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硅烷交联剂", 25.0], ["功能性硅烷", 25.0], ["羟胺系列产品", 16.0], ["羟胺盐", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 46, "hard": 12, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.9 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%、固定资产占比 8%、资产负债率 19%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 4.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "锦华新材:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.8个百分点。"]}}