{"F": {"ts_code": "920014.BJ", "name": "特瑞斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.1, "pe_ttm": 431.4916, "pb": 1.4265, "dv_ttm": 1.0893, "total_mv": 110889.6361, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.2, 34.6, 34.3, 33.2, 31.7, 28.9], "rev_series": [4.9, 6.1, 6.6, 6.7, 6.7, 5.3], "np_series": [1.2, 0.7, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.1], "roe_series": [33.5, 17.1, 11.3, 7.8, 7.6, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.4, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 31.7, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 40.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": -48.4, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": -78.8, "np_vol": 32.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["非标撬装燃气集成系统", 22.0], ["非标产品", 22.0], ["燃气调压设备", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.9, "ret_prev2_year": 5.2, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 24.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 26, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 431.5 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 431.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "特瑞斯:PE 比行业中位高 409.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.2个百分点。"]}}