{"F": {"ts_code": "920008.BJ", "name": "成电光信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.0, "pe_ttm": 77.3173, "pb": 4.4072, "dv_ttm": 0.3636, "total_mv": 140250.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.9, 45.9, 44.5, 50.4, 44.4, 41.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 1.7, 2.2, 2.8, 1.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [-4.5, 27.3, 32.4, 31.5, 21.3, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 44.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 27.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.8, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.41, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": -21.6, "rev_yoy": 0.1, "np_yoy": 45.5, "np_vol": 259.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["网络总线产品", 22.0], ["CAN总线产品", 22.0], ["特种显示产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": 38.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 59, "hard": 9, "bondness": 44}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.3 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.5%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "成电光信:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}