{"F": {"ts_code": "920002.BJ", "name": "万达轴承", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240530", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 52.56, "pe_ttm": 52.169, "pb": 4.4069, "dv_ttm": 0.4213, "total_mv": 334829.0387, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 30.3, 30.6, 31.6, 32.6, 32.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.2, 27.2, 10.8, 10.4, 9.6, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 31.6, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.41, "capex_dep": 1.78, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 21.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 13.0, "rev_yoy": 12.2, "np_yoy": 4.4, "np_vol": 186.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轴承", 46.0], ["叉车轴承", 46.0], ["回转支承", 5.0], ["材料及下角料", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 129.3, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": 177.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 57, "hard": 33, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 52.2 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.6%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.6%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "万达轴承:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}