{"F": {"ts_code": "688981.SH", "name": "中芯国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路制造", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 121.14, "pe_ttm": 143.8955, "pb": 6.0487, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 103709794.1166, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 29.3, 38.3, 21.9, 18.6, 21.6], "rev_series": [274.7, 356.3, 495.2, 452.5, 577.5, 673.2], "np_series": [43.3, 107.3, 121.3, 48.2, 34.8, 50.4], "roe_series": [6.1, 10.3, 10.0, 3.5, 2.5, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 736.1, "np_ttm": 72.1, "ocf_ttm": 349.4, "fcf_ttm": -202.0, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": 14.5, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.8, "fix_assets": 2253.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.05, "capex_dep": 1.81, "interest_debt": 955.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 33.8, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": -25.4, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 94.2, "np_vol": 70.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 131.7, "fwd_pe2": 104.6, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 5.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["集成电路晶圆代工", 45.0], ["其他-其他", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": 78.5, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 178.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": 13.2, "ret_250": 17.4, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 70.0}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 46, "hard": 92, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 143.9 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 14.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 1.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 143.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -5% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "中芯国际:PE 比行业中位高 62.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 46.4个百分点。"]}}