{"F": {"ts_code": "688835.SH", "name": "高凯技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 271.0, "pe_ttm": 146.849, "pb": 31.9912, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2708663.97, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20201231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.9, 65.4, 56.2, 51.1, 54.3, 58.5], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.8, 1.7, 2.3, 4.2, 5.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 1.3], "roe_series": [29.0, 30.0, 5.4, 8.0, 24.1, 22.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 56.2, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -9.2, "npm_median": 23.6, "roe_median": 22.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 31.99, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 22.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 45.7, "np_cagr3": 105.0, "rev_yoy": 35.5, "np_yoy": 95.1, "np_vol": 98.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["点胶封装系列", 43.0], ["精密涂胶系列", 28.0], ["流量控制系列", 27.0], ["其他配件", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 64, "hard": 25, "bondness": 0}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 146.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 146.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "高凯技术:PE 比行业中位高 69.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}