{"F": {"ts_code": "688826.SH", "name": "频准激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 771.9, "pe_ttm": 174.5666, "pb": 53.9072, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3087600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.4, 68.5, 67.8, 69.3], "rev_series": [0.8, 1.5, 2.9, 4.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.6, 1.2, 1.6], "roe_series": [59.3, 68.6, 50.8, 39.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 68.2, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 40.3, "roe_median": 55.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.8, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 53.91, "capex_dep": 2.96, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 35.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 73.2, "np_cagr3": 67.4, "rev_yoy": 42.1, "np_yoy": 24.6, "np_vol": 22.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 162.8, "fwd_pe2": 133.3, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 7.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["单频红外激光器", 17.0], ["单频可见光激光器", 12.0], ["单频紫外激光器", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 76, "hard": 16, "bondness": 0}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 174.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 162.8 倍,次年 133.3 倍,PEG 7.40。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 68.2%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 68.2%,稳定度 98%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.96 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 174.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "频准激光:PE 比行业中位高 97.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}