{"F": {"ts_code": "688825.SH", "name": "长鑫科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.8, "pe_ttm": 45.4706, "pb": 27.6128, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 372004863.068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-3.1, -1.9, 5.6, 41.0], "rev_series": [82.9, 90.9, 241.8, 618.0], "np_series": [-83.3, -163.4, -71.4, 18.7], "roe_series": [-16.8, -38.3, -18.6, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1966.7, "np_ttm": 818.1, "ocf_ttm": 1634.2, "fcf_ttm": 1162.1, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 1.8, "gm_std": 18.0, "gm_stab": -8.99, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -74.1, "roe_median": -17.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.6, "fix_assets": 2183.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 27.61, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 1405.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 42.2, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 95.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 873.6, "np_yoy": 3427.8, "np_vol": 92.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 23.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 92.0, "fwd_g2": 66.0, "peg": 0.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["LPDDR系列", 26.0], ["DDR系列", 23.0], ["其他产品及服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -12.1, "vol_250": 65.8, "pos_52w": 88.7}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 8, "hard": 75, "bondness": 3}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%,稳定度 -899%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%,稳定度 -899%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "长鑫科技:PE 比行业中位低 36.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 33.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.2个百分点。"]}}