{"F": {"ts_code": "688820.SH", "name": "盛合晶微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路封测", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 124.17, "pe_ttm": 247.3891, "pb": 11.9888, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 23130065.9997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 7.3, 21.9, 23.5, 31.0], "rev_series": [null, 16.3, 30.4, 47.1, 65.2], "np_series": [null, -3.3, 0.3, 2.1, 9.2], "roe_series": [0.0, -8.6, 0.6, 2.0, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.5, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": 39.2, "fcf_ttm": -13.7, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 22.7, "gm_std": 8.6, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.5, "fix_assets": 130.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.99, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 43.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 29.8, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 58.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 169.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 206.1, "fwd_pe2": 132.1, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 3.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芯粒多芯片集成封装", 48.0], ["中段硅片加工", 29.0], ["晶圆级封装系列产品", 11.0], ["晶圆级封装", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": -27.8, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 110.2, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 76, "bondness": 4}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 247.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%,稳定度 62%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 247.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "盛合晶微:PE 比行业中位高 165.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.1个百分点。"]}}