{"F": {"ts_code": "688819.SH", "name": "天能股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "蓄电池及其他电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.46, "pe_ttm": 20.776, "pb": 1.2391, "dv_ttm": 2.557, "total_mv": 2086126.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 15.6, 18.6, 17.5, 15.1, 14.4], "rev_series": [351.0, 387.2, 418.8, 477.5, 450.4, 457.9], "np_series": [22.8, 13.7, 19.1, 23.0, 15.5, 15.9], "roe_series": [39.0, 14.4, 14.7, 15.8, 9.9, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 472.0, "np_ttm": 10.0, "ocf_ttm": 42.2, "fcf_ttm": 32.4, "fcf_yield": 15.5, "ocf_yield": 20.2, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.0, "fix_assets": 107.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 179.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.3, "debt_ratio": 69.7, "debt_mv": 86.1, "payout": 33.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -5.9, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": -67.6, "np_vol": 30.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["铅酸电池", 30.0], ["铅蓄电池", 30.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.4, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": -34.3, "ret_pivot": -19.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": -37.1, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 46, "hard": 30, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.8 倍、股息率 2.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.5%(经营现金流/市值 20.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "天能股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}