{"F": {"ts_code": "688818.SH", "name": "电科蓝天", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航天装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航天装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航天装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.91, "pe_ttm": 228.6302, "pb": 13.8554, "dv_ttm": 0.17, "total_mv": 7626832.8449, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 24.7, 21.2, 26.1, 25.3], "rev_series": [null, 25.2, 35.2, 31.3, 32.9], "np_series": [null, 2.1, 1.9, 3.4, 3.3], "roe_series": [-3.6, 6.5, 5.8, 9.8, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.4, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.6, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.86, "capex_dep": 2.75, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": 16.4, "rev_yoy": 32.1, "np_yoy": 10.0, "np_vol": 39.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 163.5, "fwd_pe2": 107.8, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 3.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["宇航电源", 24.0], ["特种电源", 10.0], ["新能源应用及服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.1, "ret_60": -34.1, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -55.1, "vol_250": 82.5, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 17, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 228.6 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 163.5 倍,次年 107.8 倍,PEG 3.14。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 92%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 228.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航天装备Ⅱ」9 家中位:PE 237.1 / 股息率 0.1% / 毛利率 35.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 36%。", "电科蓝天:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}