{"F": {"ts_code": "688813.SH", "name": "泰金新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 102.31, "pe_ttm": 87.5292, "pb": 8.9741, "dv_ttm": 0.4887, "total_mv": 1636960.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 21.4, 21.2, 21.2, 19.7], "rev_series": [null, 10.0, 16.7, 21.9, 23.9], "np_series": [null, 1.0, 1.6, 2.0, 2.0], "roe_series": [32.5, 45.0, 49.2, 41.9, 30.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.6, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 41.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.0, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.97, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 29.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 33.6, "np_cagr3": 27.5, "rev_yoy": -11.5, "np_yoy": -16.4, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 50.9, "fwd_pe2": 40.4, "fwd_g1": 72.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["设备销售收入", 27.0], ["钛电极销售收入", 16.0], ["金属玻璃封接收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -20.7, "ret_60": -28.3, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -62.5, "vol_250": 121.5, "pos_52w": 42.1}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 50, "hard": 11, "bondness": 20}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 87.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 50.9 倍,次年 40.4 倍,PEG 1.96。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 90%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 87.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "泰金新能:PE 比行业中位高 45.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}