{"F": {"ts_code": "688811.SH", "name": "有研复材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.06, "pe_ttm": 138.7049, "pb": 6.4065, "dv_ttm": 0.2094, "total_mv": 1006357.2416, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 28.5, 27.7, 29.2], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.0, 6.1, 5.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [18.9, 15.2, 11.4, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 28.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.41, "capex_dep": 2.81, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 13.5, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 22.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": 25.4, "np_vol": 12.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["金属复合材料及制品", 19.0], ["金属复合材料", 19.0], ["特种有色金属合金制品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.6, "ret_60": -30.8, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 87.5, "pos_52w": 58.5}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 56, "hard": 19, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 138.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 97%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 138.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "有研复材:PE 比行业中位高 80.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}