{"F": {"ts_code": "688809.SH", "name": "强一股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20251230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 405.03, "pe_ttm": 109.4495, "pb": 12.6051, "dv_ttm": 0.2469, "total_mv": 5247540.3279, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.9, 40.8, 46.4, 61.7, 65.0], "rev_series": [null, 2.5, 3.5, 6.4, 10.1], "np_series": [null, 0.2, 0.2, 2.3, 3.9], "roe_series": [-4.5, 2.7, 2.1, 23.2, 15.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 46.4, "gm_std": 11.5, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.5, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.61, "capex_dep": 12.39, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 7.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 24.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 58.5, "np_cagr3": 193.5, "rev_yoy": 66.7, "np_yoy": 61.3, "np_vol": 459.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 83.9, "fwd_pe2": 58.6, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 1.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["探针卡销售", 48.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["晶圆测试板销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 58.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.1, "ret_60": -30.8, "ret_120": 20.4, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 90.1, "pos_52w": 64.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 57, "hard": 36, "bondness": 10}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 109.4 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.4%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 46.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.4%,稳定度 75%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 12.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "强一股份:PE 比行业中位高 27.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点。"]}}