{"F": {"ts_code": "688808.SH", "name": "联讯仪器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2465.0, "pe_ttm": 369.8596, "pb": 74.7041, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 25307316.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 60.5, 63.6, 58.8], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.8, 7.9, 11.9], "np_series": [-0.4, -0.6, 1.4, 1.7], "roe_series": [-10.0, -12.7, 24.0, 22.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 6.8, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 59.7, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -1.6, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 74.7, "capex_dep": 4.91, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 77.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 208.7, "np_yoy": 903.0, "np_vol": 174.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 206.8, "fwd_pe2": 97.4, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 112.0, "peg": 1.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 11.9, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 109.9, "pos_52w": 91.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 68, "hard": 8, "bondness": 1}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 6.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 370 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 59.7%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.7%,稳定度 87%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 4.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 369.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "联讯仪器:PE 比行业中位高 319.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点。"]}}