{"F": {"ts_code": "688805.SH", "name": "健信超导", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20251224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.39, "pe_ttm": 75.0634, "pb": 5.6773, "dv_ttm": 0.7248, "total_mv": 694027.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 25.3, 26.6, 27.2], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.5, 4.3, 5.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [9.7, 12.3, 12.3, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.68, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 29.4, "rev_yoy": 32.2, "np_yoy": 54.4, "np_vol": 11.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 88.1, "fwd_pe2": 71.4, "fwd_g1": -15.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 3.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["超导产品", 37.0], ["永磁产品", 9.0], ["其他收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 63.0, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 53, "hard": 16, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 75.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 88.1 倍,次年 71.4 倍,PEG 3.83。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 94%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "健信超导:PE 比行业中位高 36.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点。"]}}