{"F": {"ts_code": "688799.SH", "name": "华纳药厂", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.02, "pe_ttm": 28.842, "pb": 3.1476, "dv_ttm": 0.3575, "total_mv": 668452.274, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.1, 72.4, 67.7, 64.8, 61.6, 60.3], "rev_series": [9.5, 11.5, 12.9, 14.3, 14.1, 15.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 2.1, 1.6, 2.4], "roe_series": [23.8, 15.0, 11.9, 12.7, 9.3, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.5, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 64.8, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.6, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.15, "capex_dep": 8.45, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 38.2, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": 34.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": 9.2, "rev_yoy": -7.4, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 37.2, "fwd_pe2": 32.2, "fwd_g1": -22.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 2.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["制剂产品", 35.0], ["原料药及中间体", 14.0], ["提供服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.2, "ret_prev2_year": -13.1, "ret_ytd": 5.3, "ret_pivot": 91.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": 9.1, "ret_120": 15.7, "ret_250": -0.4, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 56.8, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 69, "hard": 57, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.8 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 64.8%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 36%、毛利率 64.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 64.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 8.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 9% / 16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "华纳药厂:PE 比行业中位低 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}