{"F": {"ts_code": "688797.SH", "name": "臻宝科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260624", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 264.3, "pe_ttm": 165.5901, "pb": 14.025, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4104322.629, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.2, 42.4, 47.8, 49.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.1, 6.3, 8.7], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.5, 2.3], "roe_series": [27.1, 19.7, 17.0, 20.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 22.8, "roe_median": 20.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.03, "capex_dep": 4.13, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 12.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 31.0, "np_cagr3": 40.4, "rev_yoy": 32.0, "np_yoy": 25.7, "np_vol": 6.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["零部件", 28.0], ["泛半导体零部件", 28.0], ["表面处理服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -22.2, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -64.4, "vol_250": 118.3, "pos_52w": 35.6}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 63, "hard": 23, "bondness": 1}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 165.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.5%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 93%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 4.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 165.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "臻宝科技:PE 比行业中位高 84.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}