{"F": {"ts_code": "688789.SH", "name": "宏华数科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "纺织服装设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.5, "pe_ttm": 19.6997, "pb": 2.2519, "dv_ttm": 2.0906, "total_mv": 766088.425, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 42.6, 47.2, 46.5, 45.0, 43.0], "rev_series": [7.2, 9.4, 8.9, 12.6, 17.9, 23.0], "np_series": [1.7, 2.3, 2.4, 3.3, 4.1, 5.3], "roe_series": [26.0, 20.4, 15.3, 14.4, 13.8, 15.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.6, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 45.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 24.2, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 13.0, "goodwill_ratio": 4.2, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 5.33, "interest_debt": 10.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": 36.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 37.0, "np_cagr3": 29.5, "rev_yoy": -14.1, "np_yoy": -55.6, "np_vol": 9.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["数码喷印设备", 23.0], ["墨水", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": -47.5, "ret_pivot": -27.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": -9.1, "ret_120": -43.7, "ret_250": -45.1, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 49.1}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 66, "hard": 40, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.7 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.0%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 5.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.7 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -9% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "宏华数科:PE 比行业中位低 22.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点。"]}}