{"F": {"ts_code": "688788.SH", "name": "科思科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201022", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.048, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 669409.0436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.1, 69.8, 56.6, 46.8, 45.7, 42.1], "rev_series": [6.5, 6.1, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.9], "np_series": [1.8, 1.8, -2.0, -2.0, -2.7, -2.9], "roe_series": [9.8, 6.1, -7.0, -7.9, -11.6, -14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": -3.6, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -4.8, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 46.8, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -12.4, "npm_median": -93.8, "roe_median": -7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.05, "capex_dep": 9.12, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -37.0, "np_yoy": -62.0, "np_vol": 80.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["专用车辆改装业务", 41.0], ["软件雷达信息处理设备及系统", 22.0], ["其他信息处理产品", 15.0], ["指挥控制信息处理设备及系统", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 216.7, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -36.4, "ret_pivot": 192.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -42.2, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 67.5, "pos_52w": 56.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 12, "bondness": 16}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 15%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 46.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.8%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 9.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "科思科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}