{"F": {"ts_code": "688786.SH", "name": "悦安新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "磁性材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.09, "pe_ttm": 53.5264, "pb": 5.478, "dv_ttm": 0.6614, "total_mv": 434861.1345, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 37.4, 34.1, 39.1, 35.2, 39.7], "rev_series": [2.6, 4.0, 4.3, 3.7, 4.2, 4.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [18.5, 19.4, 15.6, 11.7, 10.0, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 37.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 21.4, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.3, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.48, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 42.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": -5.7, "rev_yoy": 14.8, "np_yoy": -4.2, "np_vol": 31.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 33.7, "fwd_pe2": 24.8, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.94, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["软磁粉", 17.0], ["合金软磁粉", 17.0], ["羰基铁粉", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.2, "ret_prev2_year": -21.7, "ret_ytd": 7.5, "ret_pivot": 97.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.6, "ret_60": -39.5, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": 10.0, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 66.1, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 58, "hard": 80, "bondness": 41}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 6 亿,占总资产 50%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.6%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 50%)和定价权(毛利率 37.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -40% / -11%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "悦安新材:PE 比行业中位低 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点。"]}}