{"F": {"ts_code": "688785.SH", "name": "恒运昌", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20260128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 280.88, "pe_ttm": 196.3588, "pb": 8.5925, "dv_ttm": 0.2848, "total_mv": 1901602.5408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 45.9, 48.5, 48.0], "rev_series": [1.6, 3.3, 5.4, 5.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.8, 1.4, 1.1], "roe_series": [17.0, 23.1, 23.3, 15.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 46.9, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 23.0, "roe_median": 20.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.59, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 5.4, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 49.6, "np_cagr3": 63.2, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": -24.5, "np_vol": 91.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 163.3, "fwd_pe2": 117.0, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 4.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["自研产品", 44.0], ["引进产品", 6.0], ["技术服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -24.4, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 77.0, "pos_52w": 57.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 64, "hard": 8, "bondness": 15}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 196.4 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 163.3 倍,次年 117.0 倍,PEG 4.08。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.9%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 94%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 196.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "恒运昌:PE 比行业中位高 114.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}