{"F": {"ts_code": "688779.SH", "name": "五矿新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.74, "pe_ttm": 23.6087, "pb": 2.041, "dv_ttm": 0.5345, "total_mv": 1493216.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 16.9, 14.2, 4.4, 3.0, 7.9], "rev_series": [20.1, 68.4, 179.8, 107.3, 55.4, 93.4], "np_series": [1.1, 7.0, 14.9, -1.2, -5.1, 2.3], "roe_series": [3.5, 14.4, 20.3, -1.6, -7.0, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 142.5, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": -7.2, "fcf_ttm": -7.7, "fcf_yield": -5.2, "ocf_yield": -4.8, "gm_median": 7.9, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.31, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.8, "fix_assets": 42.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 33.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 69.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -19.6, "np_cagr3": -46.5, "rev_yoy": 169.0, "np_yoy": 1507.6, "np_vol": 283.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["正极材料", 99.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0], ["原材料销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.3, "ret_ytd": 3.9, "ret_pivot": 82.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": -34.7, "ret_250": 22.1, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 22, "hard": 38, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 6.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 24 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 57%,有息负债 34 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.2%(经营现金流/市值 -4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 31%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.6 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -8% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "五矿新能:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}