{"F": {"ts_code": "688778.SH", "name": "厦钨新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.13, "pe_ttm": 25.5555, "pb": 2.4479, "dv_ttm": 1.0814, "total_mv": 2328140.0443, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, 9.5, 8.6, 8.0, 9.8, 10.0], "rev_series": [79.9, 155.7, 287.5, 173.1, 133.0, 198.8], "np_series": [2.5, 5.6, 11.2, 5.3, 4.9, 7.5], "roe_series": [15.4, 20.3, 18.6, 6.3, 5.7, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 268.3, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 9.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 54.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.45, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 61.4, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 33.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.6, "np_cagr3": -12.3, "rev_yoy": 91.1, "np_yoy": 46.6, "np_vol": 63.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 21.9, "fwd_pe2": 17.7, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 107.2, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -40.1, "ret_pivot": 126.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -16.1, "ret_120": -39.5, "ret_250": -17.3, "mdd_250": -56.0, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 47.2}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 43, "hard": 33, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -16% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "厦钨新能:PE 比行业中位低 10.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点。"]}}