{"F": {"ts_code": "688777.SH", "name": "中控技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 89.72, "pe_ttm": 292.7458, "pb": 7.2032, "dv_ttm": 0.3077, "total_mv": 7098552.194, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.6, 39.3, 35.7, 33.2, 33.9, 31.2], "rev_series": [31.6, 45.2, 66.2, 86.2, 91.4, 80.7], "np_series": [4.2, 5.8, 8.0, 11.0, 11.2, 4.4], "roe_series": [14.6, 13.7, 16.3, 14.6, 11.1, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 78.8, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 33.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.4, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 7.2, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": -17.9, "rev_yoy": -5.1, "np_yoy": -56.2, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 96.8, "fwd_pe2": 71.2, "fwd_g1": 202.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 2.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能制造解决方案", 19.0], ["工业自动化及智能制造解决方案", 19.0], ["工业软件及服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.5, "ret_ytd": 82.9, "ret_pivot": 137.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.3, "ret_60": -9.3, "ret_120": 26.6, "ret_250": 73.9, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 60.0, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 7, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 292.7 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(18 篇研报)前瞻 PE 96.8 倍,次年 71.2 倍,PEG 2.69。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.9%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 292.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 74%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -9% / 27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "中控技术:PE 比行业中位高 215.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}