{"F": {"ts_code": "688776.SH", "name": "国光电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0586, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 512003.1816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.0, 49.8, 35.0, 30.0, 33.2, 19.0], "rev_series": [4.5, 5.9, 9.1, 7.5, 5.4, 2.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.5, -1.0], "roe_series": [17.9, 15.1, 9.9, 5.0, 2.6, -5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -13.0, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.06, "capex_dep": 5.31, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 33.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -32.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -40.4, "np_yoy": -492.4, "np_vol": 129.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["微波组件", 25.0], ["微波器件", 25.0], ["其他民用产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.7, "ret_prev2_year": -51.4, "ret_ytd": -53.1, "ret_pivot": 30.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": -19.3, "ret_120": -57.9, "ret_250": -46.6, "mdd_250": -67.6, "vol_250": 62.6, "pos_52w": 34.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 31, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 25%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 5.31 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 34%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -19% / -58%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "国光电气:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}