{"F": {"ts_code": "688772.SH", "name": "珠海冠宇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.6, "pe_ttm": 117.1131, "pb": 2.611, "dv_ttm": 1.8898, "total_mv": 1775716.176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 25.1, 16.9, 25.2, 25.7, 24.2], "rev_series": [69.6, 103.4, 109.7, 114.5, 115.4, 144.1], "np_series": [8.2, 9.5, 0.9, 3.4, 4.3, 4.7], "roe_series": [29.9, 19.8, 1.4, 5.1, 6.1, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 156.4, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 19.0, "fcf_ttm": -24.3, "fcf_yield": -13.7, "ocf_yield": 10.7, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.9, "fix_assets": 146.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.47, "capex_dep": 2.32, "interest_debt": 83.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 71.2, "debt_mv": 47.2, "payout": 78.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 73.1, "rev_yoy": 20.2, "np_yoy": -273.9, "np_vol": 122.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 26.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.0, "fwd_g1": 335.0, "fwd_g2": 80.0, "peg": 0.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.1, "ret_prev2_year": -26.8, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": 24.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": -4.1, "ret_120": -5.9, "ret_250": -16.1, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 57.0, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 47, "hard": 86, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 117.1 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.7%(经营现金流/市值 10.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 117.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -4% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "珠海冠宇:PE 比行业中位高 81.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.1个百分点。"]}}