{"F": {"ts_code": "688768.SH", "name": "容知日新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.3, "pe_ttm": 125.1955, "pb": 3.671, "dv_ttm": 0.6928, "total_mv": 380991.071, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.9, 61.3, 64.2, 62.1, 63.6, 63.1], "rev_series": [2.6, 4.0, 5.5, 5.0, 5.8, 6.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 1.2, 0.6, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [23.3, 16.4, 16.6, 8.0, 11.6, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 63.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 11.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.67, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 22.1, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -10.1, "rev_yoy": -24.3, "np_yoy": -378.1, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 29.1, "fwd_pe2": 22.4, "fwd_g1": 331.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["状态监测与故障诊断系统", 30.0], ["工业设备运维解决方案", 30.0], ["AI诊断及服务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.1, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": 0.4, "ret_pivot": 93.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -17.8, "ret_120": -10.4, "ret_250": -16.4, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 52.0, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 70, "hard": 24, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 125.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 29.1 倍,次年 22.4 倍,PEG 0.97。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.1%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 125.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "容知日新:PE 比行业中位高 74.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}