{"F": {"ts_code": "688767.SH", "name": "博拓生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.5, "pe_ttm": 275.8825, "pb": 2.6156, "dv_ttm": 1.8667, "total_mv": 559999.875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.8, 61.8, 53.5, 50.3, 52.8, 46.0], "rev_series": [8.7, 18.2, 19.0, 4.4, 5.6, 4.5], "np_series": [4.4, 8.3, 7.7, 1.1, 1.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [152.4, 65.3, 33.1, 4.3, 7.0, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 52.8, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -21.3, "npm_median": 29.8, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.5, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.62, "capex_dep": 5.98, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 10.8, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 186.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -38.2, "np_cagr3": -60.1, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -233.5, "np_vol": 69.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 54.6, "fwd_pe2": 45.2, "fwd_g1": 405.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 2.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["POCT产品业务及其他", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.9, "ret_prev2_year": 13.2, "ret_ytd": 1.1, "ret_pivot": 135.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.8, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": 5.2, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -37.4, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 78.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 38, "bondness": 72}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 275.9 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.8%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.8%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 5.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 275.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -2% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "博拓生物:PE 比行业中位高 237.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点。"]}}