{"F": {"ts_code": "688766.SH", "name": "普冉股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 367.26, "pe_ttm": 54.9684, "pb": 16.3385, "dv_ttm": 0.0325, "total_mv": 5461288.4136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 36.2, 29.9, 24.3, 33.6, 28.4], "rev_series": [7.2, 11.0, 9.2, 11.3, 18.0, 23.2], "np_series": [0.9, 2.9, 0.8, -0.5, 2.9, 2.1], "roe_series": [28.5, 25.1, 4.2, -2.5, 14.1, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.7, "np_ttm": 9.9, "ocf_ttm": 10.7, "fcf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 6.1, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.7, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 16.34, "capex_dep": 4.52, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 37.6, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 15.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 35.9, "np_cagr3": 35.6, "rev_yoy": 336.7, "np_yoy": 1929.7, "np_vol": 313.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芯片收入", 50.0], ["芯片产品", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.8, "ret_prev2_year": 45.5, "ret_ytd": 189.0, "ret_pivot": 815.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -5.2, "ret_120": 50.6, "ret_250": 374.1, "mdd_250": -64.4, "vol_250": 103.9, "pos_52w": 42.2}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 56, "hard": 8, "bondness": 7}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.0 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 4.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 374%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 104%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -5% / 51%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "普冉股份:PE 比行业中位低 26.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}