{"F": {"ts_code": "688765.SH", "name": "禾元生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "血液制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20251028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.6012, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1308450.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [71.3, 61.2, 63.6, 54.3, 63.5, 37.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5], "np_series": [null, null, -1.4, -1.9, -1.5, -1.6], "roe_series": [-38.3, -40.2, -21.2, -23.0, -22.7, -9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.5, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_ttm": -7.7, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 61.2, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": -600.3, "roe_median": -22.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.0, "fix_assets": 17.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.6, "capex_dep": 10.21, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.1, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 52.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 43.8, "np_yoy": 23.1, "np_vol": 60.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 166.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商品销售", 50.0], ["产品", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -47.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.6, "ret_60": -18.7, "ret_120": -48.2, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -74.4, "vol_250": 64.0, "pos_52w": 28.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 64, "hard": 74, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 61.2%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.2%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 10.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "禾元生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.9个百分点。"]}}