{"F": {"ts_code": "688750.SH", "name": "金天钛业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20241120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.49, "pe_ttm": 129.9868, "pb": 2.6949, "dv_ttm": 0.1587, "total_mv": 670162.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 39.0, 33.2, 34.2, 38.0, 30.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.0, 8.0, 8.1, 6.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.3, 1.5, 1.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [3.1, 8.5, 8.9, 9.1, 7.3, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 22.0, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 3.3, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 32.6, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 19.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": -23.5, "rev_yoy": 7.5, "np_yoy": -19.0, "np_vol": 115.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钛及钛合金产品", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.3, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -27.4, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -40.2, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 70, "hard": 35, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 130.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.2%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 3.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -10% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "金天钛业:PE 比行业中位高 93.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}