{"F": {"ts_code": "688739.SH", "name": "成大生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.44, "pe_ttm": 198.9946, "pb": 0.9117, "dv_ttm": 0.4831, "total_mv": 851223.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [86.3, 89.9, 87.1, 83.6, 82.9, 79.4], "rev_series": [20.0, 20.9, 18.1, 17.5, 16.8, 13.9], "np_series": [9.2, 8.9, 7.1, 4.7, 3.4, 1.3], "roe_series": [24.3, 13.3, 7.5, 4.8, 3.6, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 83.6, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 26.6, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 18.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 3.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.5, "np_cagr3": -43.1, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -72.8, "np_vol": 19.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["狂犬疫苗", 31.0], ["人用狂犬病疫苗", 31.0], ["人用乙脑疫苗", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.2, "ret_ytd": -20.3, "ret_pivot": -4.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 21.3, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 84, "hard": 30, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 199.0 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 83.6%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 83.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 199.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 2% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "成大生物:PE 比行业中位高 166.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}