{"F": {"ts_code": "688737.SH", "name": "中自科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211022", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2248, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 209477.004, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 15.1, 5.6, 11.9, 9.5, 11.9], "rev_series": [25.8, 9.6, 4.5, 15.4, 15.6, 17.7], "np_series": [2.2, 0.1, -0.9, 0.4, -0.3, -0.6], "roe_series": [59.9, 0.8, -4.5, 2.3, -1.4, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.9, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_ttm": -6.4, "fcf_yield": -30.6, "ocf_yield": -20.1, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -11.6, "npm_median": -1.5, "roe_median": -1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 15.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 2.66, "interest_debt": 12.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 57.2, "debt_mv": 60.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 58.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 67.4, "np_yoy": -449.0, "np_vol": 369.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 25.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["催化剂", 46.0], ["数字能源及复合材料", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.0, "ret_prev2_year": -46.2, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": 45.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": -29.1, "ret_120": -38.9, "ret_250": -32.4, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 63, "bondness": 3}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点;资产负债率 57%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -30.6%(经营现金流/市值 -20.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.66 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -29% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中自科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}