{"F": {"ts_code": "688733.SH", "name": "壹石通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.11, "pe_ttm": 791.9273, "pb": 2.6896, "dv_ttm": 0.3511, "total_mv": 561568.0872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 42.7, 40.4, 26.2, 22.7, 20.0], "rev_series": [1.9, 4.2, 6.0, 4.6, 5.0, 6.3], "np_series": [0.5, 1.1, 1.5, 0.2, 0.1, -0.2], "roe_series": [9.7, 12.7, 8.4, 1.1, 0.5, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -4.9, "fcf_yield": -8.7, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 26.2, "gm_std": 9.3, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.2, "fix_assets": 19.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 3.51, "interest_debt": 11.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 20.3, "payout": 125.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 51.2, "np_yoy": 167.1, "np_vol": 141.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 62.0, "fwd_pe2": 39.4, "fwd_g1": 1177.0, "fwd_g2": 57.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["无机功能粉体材料", 45.0], ["聚合物材料", 3.0], ["聚合物", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.4, "ret_prev2_year": -35.5, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 117.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -30.3, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": 1.8, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 74.4, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 84, "bondness": 71}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 791.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%、固定资产占比 52%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 3.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 791.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -30% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "壹石通:PE 比行业中位高 756.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.4个百分点。"]}}