{"F": {"ts_code": "688729.SH", "name": "屹唐股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20250708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.02, "pe_ttm": 90.5584, "pb": 7.1254, "dv_ttm": 0.124, "total_mv": 6508143.12, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 30.2, 28.5, 35.0, 37.4, 38.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 47.6, 39.3, 46.3, 50.8], "np_series": [null, null, 3.8, 3.1, 5.4, 6.7], "roe_series": [0.8, 4.2, 8.2, 6.0, 9.6, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.3, "np_ttm": 7.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 35.0, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 7.13, "capex_dep": 2.45, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 17.5, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 11.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": 20.6, "rev_yoy": -14.1, "np_yoy": 13.8, "np_vol": 237.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 75.9, "fwd_pe2": 53.1, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 1.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -9.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.4, "ret_60": -12.5, "ret_120": -6.6, "ret_250": -22.9, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 65.7, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 53, "hard": 16, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 75.9 倍,次年 53.1 倍,PEG 1.77。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -12% / -7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "屹唐股份:PE 比行业中位高 9.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}