{"F": {"ts_code": "688727.SH", "name": "恒坤新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20251118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.5, "pe_ttm": 145.7456, "pb": 7.9055, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2044404.18, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.5, 69.4, 72.6, 62.2, 53.8, 44.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.2, 3.7, 5.5, 6.6], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [3.7, 5.9, 11.3, 6.8, 6.7, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 62.2, "gm_std": 10.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 18.8, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 14.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.91, "capex_dep": 4.44, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 27.0, "np_cagr3": -1.0, "rev_yoy": 16.0, "np_yoy": 102.1, "np_vol": 102.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["光刻材料", 34.0], ["半导体前驱体材料", 8.0], ["前驱体材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -4.8, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -20.9, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 73.5, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 68, "hard": 62, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 145.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 62.2%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 62.2%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.2%,稳定度 84%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 4.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 145.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "恒坤新材:PE 比行业中位高 64.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.1个百分点。"]}}