{"F": {"ts_code": "688722.SH", "name": "同益中", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.54, "pe_ttm": 28.9084, "pb": 2.2102, "dv_ttm": 0.6878, "total_mv": 325848.9608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 31.6, 39.9, 38.7, 37.7, 28.5], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.3, 6.2, 6.4, 6.5, 9.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 1.7, 1.5, 1.3, 1.1], "roe_series": [7.9, 6.1, 15.8, 12.8, 10.1, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.1, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 6.0, "npm_median": 20.8, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.6, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 23.0, "debt_mv": 5.6, "payout": 20.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": -13.9, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": 4.9, "np_vol": 95.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 21.1, "fwd_pe2": 16.4, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["超高分子量聚乙烯纤维系列产品", 34.0], ["间位芳纶纤维系列产品", 15.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.4, "ret_ytd": -25.2, "ret_pivot": 51.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -17.6, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -36.8, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 61, "hard": 73, "bondness": 17}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 10 亿,占总资产 46%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.3%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 46%)和定价权(毛利率 37.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -18% / -19%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "同益中:PE 比行业中位低 3.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}