{"F": {"ts_code": "688720.SH", "name": "艾森股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20231206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.55, "pe_ttm": 125.3792, "pb": 6.7234, "dv_ttm": 0.1356, "total_mv": 705781.69, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 29.3, 23.3, 27.2, 26.4, 29.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.2, 3.6, 4.3, 5.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [10.0, 10.5, 5.4, 4.5, 3.4, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.8, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 6.72, "capex_dep": 4.29, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 24.3, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 18.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.3, "np_cagr3": 30.1, "rev_yoy": 23.6, "np_yoy": 30.1, "np_vol": 33.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 63.8, "fwd_pe2": 40.3, "fwd_g1": 97.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.2, "ret_ytd": 14.7, "ret_pivot": 180.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.4, "ret_60": -21.1, "ret_120": 21.0, "ret_250": 61.0, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 81.0, "pos_52w": 54.5}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 50, "hard": 52, "bondness": 13}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 125.4 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 4.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 125.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -21% / 21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "艾森股份:PE 比行业中位高 43.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}