{"F": {"ts_code": "688717.SH", "name": "艾罗能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "逆变器", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20240103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6817, "dv_ttm": 2.0604, "total_mv": 728000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 36.4, 39.0, 39.9, 38.1, 32.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 46.1, 44.7, 30.7, 40.8], "np_series": [null, null, 11.3, 10.6, 2.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [159.5, 53.5, 158.3, 37.9, 4.7, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.3, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 38.1, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 37.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 5.29, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 51.4, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 98.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": -52.6, "rev_yoy": 74.6, "np_yoy": -124.8, "np_vol": 687.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 8.9, "fwd_pe2": 6.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["户用储能系统及产品", 29.0], ["工商业储能系统", 9.0], ["工商业储能业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": -14.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -23.8, "ret_60": -49.8, "ret_120": -68.5, "ret_250": -31.9, "mdd_250": -68.8, "vol_250": 70.7, "pos_52w": 31.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 24, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.1%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 5.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 31%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -50% / -68%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "艾罗能源:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}