{"F": {"ts_code": "688716.SH", "name": "中研股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8661, "dv_ttm": 0.7405, "total_mv": 328657.68, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.3, 48.0, 44.6, 39.5, 40.1, 44.1], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.0, 2.5, 2.9, 2.8, 3.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [10.8, 18.5, 18.1, 7.3, 3.4, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 44.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 18.7, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 4.1, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 10.5, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -40.4, "rev_yoy": 0.3, "np_yoy": -284.5, "np_vol": 57.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 158.9, "fwd_pe2": 108.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 3.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["纯树脂颗粒", 14.0], ["树脂类", 14.0], ["复合类", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.6, "ret_ytd": -35.9, "ret_pivot": 74.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -49.5, "mdd_250": -52.0, "vol_250": 51.0, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 48, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.1%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.10 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -16% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "中研股份:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}