{"F": {"ts_code": "688709.SH", "name": "成都华微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20240207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.28, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.4663, "dv_ttm": 0.2018, "total_mv": 1546264.7588, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [76.3, 82.7, 76.1, 76.2, 75.7, 70.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 8.4, 9.3, 6.0, 7.6], "np_series": [null, null, 2.8, 3.1, 1.2, 1.5], "roe_series": [8.9, 25.6, 32.1, 27.2, 5.9, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 76.1, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 32.6, "roe_median": 25.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.47, "capex_dep": 3.34, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 19.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.5, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": -29.6, "np_yoy": -440.3, "np_vol": 110.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 62.3, "fwd_pe2": 46.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["模拟集成电路", 17.0], ["模拟类", 17.0], ["集成电路", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -47.1, "ret_pivot": 77.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": -32.5, "ret_120": -47.2, "ret_250": -48.8, "mdd_250": -59.0, "vol_250": 62.5, "pos_52w": 42.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 79, "hard": 31, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 62.3 倍,次年 46.7 倍,PEG 1.89。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 76.1%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 76.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 3.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -32% / -47%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "成都华微:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 41.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}