{"F": {"ts_code": "688707.SH", "name": "振华新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210914", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.29, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.373, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 523493.6658, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.9, 14.6, 13.7, 6.8, -13.4, -12.9], "rev_series": [10.4, 55.1, 139.4, 68.8, 19.6, 14.3], "np_series": [-1.7, 4.1, 12.7, 1.0, -5.3, -4.3], "roe_series": [-12.4, 19.6, 36.3, 2.6, -12.7, -10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.7, "np_ttm": -3.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 6.8, "gm_std": 12.5, "gm_stab": -0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 7.8, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 24.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 17.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 39.4, "debt_mv": 32.9, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -53.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": 19.9, "np_vol": 329.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电正极材料", 48.0], ["正极材料", 48.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.5, "ret_prev2_year": -46.5, "ret_ytd": -25.7, "ret_pivot": 29.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -23.7, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 62, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.8 个百分点;资产负债率 39%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 -83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 -83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -24% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "振华新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}