{"F": {"ts_code": "688702.SH", "name": "盛科通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230914", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 324.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 59.1745, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 13316800.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.0, 47.1, 43.2, 36.3, 40.1, 49.2], "rev_series": [2.6, 4.6, 7.7, 10.4, 10.8, 11.5], "np_series": [-0.1, -0.0, -0.3, -0.2, -0.7, -1.5], "roe_series": [-3.7, -1.1, -7.9, -1.4, -2.9, -6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.1, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 43.2, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 59.17, "capex_dep": 8.48, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 10.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 14.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 32.0, "np_yoy": 25.8, "np_vol": 295.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 2868.5, "fwd_pe2": 307.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 832.0, "peg": 3.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["以太网交换芯片", 41.0], ["以太网交换机", 5.0], ["以太网交换芯片模组", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.7, "ret_prev2_year": 64.9, "ret_ytd": 129.2, "ret_pivot": 884.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.2, "ret_60": 23.0, "ret_120": 73.7, "ret_250": 130.4, "mdd_250": -29.3, "vol_250": 89.0, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 12, "bondness": 9}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.2%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 8.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 130%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 89%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / 23% / 74%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "盛科通信:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}