{"F": {"ts_code": "688700.SH", "name": "东威科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.74, "pe_ttm": 90.3159, "pb": 8.2738, "dv_ttm": 0.372, "total_mv": 1603609.1236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 42.6, 41.9, 41.7, 33.5, 34.4], "rev_series": [5.5, 8.0, 10.1, 9.1, 7.5, 11.0], "np_series": [0.9, 1.6, 2.1, 1.5, 0.7, 1.2], "roe_series": [27.0, 28.6, 25.0, 11.3, 4.0, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.3, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 41.7, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.27, "capex_dep": 4.46, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 54.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": -17.2, "rev_yoy": 51.9, "np_yoy": 133.2, "np_vol": 54.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 50.9, "fwd_pe2": 30.3, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["设备类及其他", 50.0], ["设备及其他", 50.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.3, "ret_prev2_year": -37.2, "ret_ytd": 53.2, "ret_pivot": 220.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.4, "ret_60": -35.5, "ret_120": 11.9, "ret_250": 22.6, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 71.5, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 61, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.3 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 50.9 倍,次年 30.3 倍,PEG 0.75。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.7%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 4.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -36% / 12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "东威科技:PE 比行业中位高 48.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}