{"F": {"ts_code": "688699.SH", "name": "明微电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.18, "pe_ttm": 85.1811, "pb": 4.9065, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 629349.3828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 65.0, 24.2, 14.6, 24.4, 21.4], "rev_series": [5.3, 12.5, 6.8, 6.5, 6.1, 6.6], "np_series": [1.1, 6.5, 0.1, -0.9, 0.1, -0.5], "roe_series": [15.4, 46.7, 0.7, -6.1, 0.6, -3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 17.9, "gm_stab": 0.26, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.91, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 69.3, "np_yoy": 340.4, "np_vol": 528.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["显示驱动", 38.0], ["LED显示驱动芯片", 38.0], ["线性电源", 12.0], ["其他类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": 34.5, "ret_pivot": 152.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.2, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": 20.6, "ret_250": 43.8, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 78.8, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 25, "hard": 15, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 85 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 26%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -5% / 21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "明微电子:PE 比行业中位高 3.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}