{"F": {"ts_code": "688697.SH", "name": "纽威数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.08, "pe_ttm": 27.2749, "pb": 5.3011, "dv_ttm": 2.1315, "total_mv": 965522.1836, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 25.3, 27.5, 26.5, 23.7, 20.9], "rev_series": [11.6, 17.1, 18.5, 23.2, 24.6, 28.9], "np_series": [1.0, 1.7, 2.6, 3.2, 3.3, 3.0], "roe_series": [23.4, 19.4, 19.7, 21.0, 19.4, 17.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.8, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 19.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.3, "capex_dep": 4.91, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 62.6, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 61.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": 5.1, "rev_yoy": 30.4, "np_yoy": 38.3, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 23.3, "fwd_pe2": 18.2, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["大型加工中心", 21.0], ["立式数控机床", 19.0], ["卧式数控机床", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.6, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": 41.4, "ret_pivot": 150.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": 34.7, "ret_250": 38.0, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 85.9}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 54, "hard": 26, "bondness": 42}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 38%,PE TTM 27.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 23.3 倍,PEG 0.83。", "自由现金流 0.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 4.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.3 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 7% / 35%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "纽威数控:PE 比行业中位低 23.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}