{"F": {"ts_code": "688692.SH", "name": "达梦数据", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20240612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 213.33, "pe_ttm": 45.3263, "pb": 6.233, "dv_ttm": 0.75, "total_mv": 2415748.92, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [90.3, 90.6, 94.1, 95.8, 89.6, 96.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.9, 7.9, 10.4, 13.1], "np_series": [null, null, 2.7, 3.0, 3.6, 5.2], "roe_series": [38.3, 63.7, 26.5, 23.4, 15.6, 14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.0, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 94.1, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 38.6, "roe_median": 23.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.23, "capex_dep": 7.24, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.1, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 32.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 23.8, "np_cagr3": 24.3, "rev_yoy": 36.3, "np_yoy": 8.0, "np_vol": 79.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 36.6, "fwd_pe2": 28.5, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["软件产品使用授权", 31.0], ["办公软件产品使用授权", 31.0], ["数据库一体机销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.3, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": 29.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": -16.0, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 91, "hard": 16, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.3 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 94.1%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 94.1%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 94.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 7.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -16% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "达梦数据:PE 比行业中位低 37.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 45.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}